Saturday Snippet: Situational awareness can save your life

Last month Gary Quesenberry published his new book, "Spotting Danger Before It Spots You: Build Situational Awareness To Stay Safe".

In today's troubled times, situational awareness is more important than ever.  I'm astonished to see so many people (particularly younger people) walking down the street, heads lowered over their smartphones as they text back and forth, totally ignoring the world around them.  They even step off sidewalks and cross streets like that, never lifting their heads to check for oncoming traffic!  I've had a couple of close encounters with such idiots while driving.  When you honk your horn at them, they jump in fright, then look at you as if it's all your fault - and if you'd been unfortunate enough to hit them, that's what their lawyers would claim when they sued you, even if the fault was all their clients'.

In a situation where urban unrest, riots, demonstrations and the like may occur nearby, we need to be on the lookout for them, and prepared to take evasive action when necessary.  This book is a useful tool in learning how to do that.  I've excerpted some of the first two chapters as a sampler.

Situational awareness is the ability to identify and process environmental cues to accurately predict the actions of others. This requires us to be familiar with what is known as baseline behaviors (those actions that are considered normal in any given environment). By knowing what is deemed to be reasonable and appropriate, we can more easily spot the people that seem out of place and raise our suspicion. Then we can evaluate that person’s actions, and with practice, accurately predict their behaviors. This is how situational awareness works, and it allows us to get the jump on dangerous situations so that we can respond appropriately. We’re going to go into greater detail about these things later on, but there are a few points I’d like you to keep in mind as you read.

• Situational awareness always increases your level of personal security. This stands true whether you’re concerned about violent predators, or the guy in aisle three who refuses to cover his cough.

• Before COVID-19, if you were standing in line at the bank and someone walked in wearing a mask, you would have probably panicked, now it’s perfectly normal. The baseline for normal behaviors has shifted dramatically. Because of that, we each need to reconsider how we define danger. My definition may be much different than yours, but neither of us is wrong. If you spot something that you judge to be threatening, avoid it. The techniques you’ll learn in this book will help you to do that.

• You are your own last line of defense. You must stay focused on the things that matter most when you’re out and about. Although the COVID-19 virus requires us to practice specific protective measures, your personal safety extends well beyond the threat of getting sick. Whatever you do, don’t allow yourself to become so focused on whether or not the person behind you in the checkout line is wearing a mask that you miss the fact he’s holding a knife.

These are trying times, but in the end, we’ll all get through it. Keep in mind that as we progress along the road to situational awareness, the next threat to our safety could be just over the horizon, and no one knows what shape that threat may take. No matter what other people may throw at you, be it a criminal or Mother Nature, you must maintain your concentration and keep focused on the end goal, ensuring the security of yourself and those you love. It’s a big crazy world out there, and things are always changing. Stay safe, and always keep your head up.

. . .

My goal here is to take what’s relevant in the world of situational awareness and personal safety and boil that information down to its simplest terms, which can then be easily implemented in your daily life. The techniques and exercises I’ll have you practice work for everyone—parents, small children walking to school, teenagers going off to college, and whole families headed out on summer vacation. It works universally. When properly applied, this system of situational awareness will help improve your general understanding of how, when, and where violence occurs. It will also increase your chances of successfully detecting and avoiding danger no matter where in the world you may find yourself.

. . .

Real situational awareness requires a shift in perspective. It’s not enough to just walk around in a state of hypervigilance, thinking that nothing within your line of sight will go unnoticed. You have to be able to see yourself and others from the perspective of a predator. This isn’t easy for a lot of people. For the most part, we all want to see the best in others, and the fact that someone else could possibly view us as a target of opportunity is hard to imagine. The unfortunate truth is that there are predators among us, and unless we can change the way we think, we may look like easy prey without even knowing it.

To better understand predatory behaviors, let’s start by breaking down and categorizing the different types of predators and their basic motivations. In his book, Facing Violence: Preparing for the Unexpected, Sgt. Rory Miller breaks down predators into two groups: resource predators and process predators.

A resource predator is looking for tangible items, be it cash, jewelry, or even your shoes. They’ve decided they need something and they’re going to take it from you. Predators in this category include your basic mugger, pickpocket, or burglar. In some cases, if a resource predator confronts you and you just give them the thing they want, they go away.

Process predators, on the other hand, are much different. Process predators aren’t interested in your watch or wallet; they get off on the act of violence itself. This category of predator includes the likes of rapists and murderers.

Motivations of the two categories of predators can vary, but violent behavior is primarily driven by one of four things: money, ego, territory, and emotion. Let’s take a closer look at each.

1. Money: Like it or not, money is a consideration in almost every aspect of our lives. If you want a roof over your head, food in your stomach, and clothes on your back, you’re going to need money, plain and simple. Money is also a consistent factor in the commission of crimes. Some people have plenty of money, but they want more, and they’ll do whatever it takes, legal or illegal, to get it. This is where you get your white-collar criminals who end up in jail for tax evasion, fraud, or embezzlement. In those cases, victims may have lost money, but they were seldom harmed physically. More commonly, it’s the lack of money that drives people to commit irrational acts. Desperation can creep in, and people will go to any length to satisfy their needs. A friend of mine just sat as a juror on a capital murder case where a twenty-five-year-old man murdered his drug dealer over a forty-dollar debt. Most of us can’t even fathom such an act over that amount of money, but money is just the beginning of the problem; the real issue starts when the need for money is fueled by addiction. According to the Bureau of Justice, more than 18 percent of inmates in federal prisons committed their crimes to get money for drugs. In addition, drug addicts committed 26 percent of violent crimes as defined by the UCR. Alcohol, drugs, sex, you name it; if there’s a need for it, you can guarantee that money is what gets it. For some people, when money is unavailable, crime is a reasonable alternative.
   
2. Ego: On the surface, this one seems to be a little less common, but we all have egos; it’s the part of us that feels the need to be special. People will go to extremes to protect that feeling because it feeds their self-image, which can lead them into some pretty dangerous situations. We’ve all seen this play out either on television or in real life. Guy number one at the bar backs up and spills his drink on a lady’s dress. The lady’s boyfriend (guy number two) rushes to her defense and verbally attacks guy number one. Guy number one now has to save face in front of his friends and the other patrons of the bar, so he puffs out his chest and starts talking trash. Guy number two isn’t about to back down in front of his girlfriend, so things escalate and become physical. Both guys end up bloody, broken, and kicked out on the street looking like fools. Overinflated egos often lead to bad decision-making. If you ever find yourself in a predicament where egos are taking over and it looks like confrontation is eminent, it’s best to simply swallow your pride and remove yourself from the situation.
   
3. Territory: Humans are territorial creatures and will fight to protect what they consider to be theirs. An entirely peaceful, law-abiding citizen can become incredibly violent when they feel something within their territory has been threatened. A person’s home is their territory. When a mother takes her children to the park, that area becomes an extension of her territory, and she will protect it viciously from anyone she feels poses a danger to her children. The same goes for criminals. They survey their surroundings and stake claims on everything from street corners to door stoops. They become aggressive and often violent when they feel their territory is being encroached upon. To avoid this, it’s important that you become familiar with the places you frequent and be aware of any areas where your presence may cause problems.
   
4. Emotion: Violence is frequently driven by emotion. From jealous spouses to disgruntled employees and bullied teenagers, violent crimes such as mass shootings are often triggered by emotional responses. The level of emotion attached to religious beliefs has served as the primary influence behind acts of terrorism and the recruitment of others to extremist causes. Emotion is an incredibly powerful force, and it can be very unpredictable. Violence compelled by emotion tends to be excessively punishing.

That's a small sample of the sort of things you can learn from this book.  It's all useful stuff, and important in today's world.  It's particularly important because the system of justice in many states and cities of our nation has become politicized.  Those with certain political views and/or skin colors are likely to be treated a lot more harshly than those with others, and if the "wrong" color or politics is involved in a violent incident - no matter how justified their self-defense may be in terms of the letter of the law - they're likely to face a very vengeful prosecutor, out to prove that "his" or "her" people couldn't possibly be the guilty party(ies).

Given that legal fees may run into the tens of thousands of dollars, plus all the aggravation in having to defend oneself against charges that may be baseless, but will nevertheless be splashed all over the news media, we can see that avoiding this post-conflict conundrum may be even more important than recognizing potential conflict itself, in time to avoid it.


*Sigh*


Peter

Negligence with a gun produces yet another serious injury

I was sorry - and angry - to read this report from Utah.

A man accidentally fired his gun while trying to dismantle it and struck a woman who was three bays over at the TNT Gun and Range on Saturday afternoon in Murray ... The bullet went through both of the woman's legs.

Sgt. Paul Christiansen with Murray Police Department said the woman was in her 50s and is expected to make a full recovery. She was sent into surgery the same day to treat her dual wounds.

There's more at the link.

Friends, I've repeated Jeff Cooper's four rules of gun safety many times in these pages.  To refresh our collective memory:

1. All guns are always loaded. Even if they are not, treat them as if they are.
2. Never let the muzzle cover anything you are not willing to destroy. (For those who insist that this particular gun is unloaded, see Rule 1.)
3. Keep your finger off the trigger till your sights are on the target. This is the Golden Rule. Its violation is directly responsible for about 60 percent of inadvertent discharges.
4. Identify your target, and what is behind it. Never shoot at anything that you have not positively identified.

This incident was a clear breach of Rule 2 at the very least, and probably Rule 3 as well.  Guns don't just "go off by accident" unless someone's fiddling with them, and it's all too easy to let one's finger stray too close to the trigger.  (That's not helped by the design of some pistols like the Glock, where one has to pull the trigger - AFTER UNLOADING THE GUN! - in order to disassemble it.  If one hasn't properly unloaded it, loud noises can result.)

Thanks be to God that nothing worse happened.  One trusts that measures will be taken to teach the erring gun owner better weapon-handling.  I hope he has good insurance, because the medical bills resulting from his goof are likely to be high, and I daresay he'll be held liable for every penny of them - as he should be.




Peter

The frightening fragility of our cities

In urging readers to be prepared for emergencies, whether it be in terms of supplies, preparations to get out in a crisis, ability to defend themselves, etc., I've sometimes been accused of over-reacting.  There are those who say I'm fear-mongering, trying to worry people unnecessarily.  "It won't ever get that bad!"

Sadly, I've seen enough violence, unrest and social instability in my time to be very well aware that it can get that bad.  I've seen it in many parts of Africa, and in some US cities too.  Others who've "been there and done that" (for example, Selco in Bosnia) can confirm what I say.  The reality can be almost infinitely worse than anything I can say in these pages.

The residents of Minneapolis had a relatively mild introduction to that reality a few days ago.  Imagine if the destruction pictured below had extended to entire residential neighborhoods.  It can all too easily do so.  I've seen it.

What's worrying me more and more is that I'm seeing signs, in the growing tension in our society, that there are those who want to create such instability:  who see it as the only "solution" to the problems they perceive.  Of course, those problems will vary depending on the perspective of the individual, but they all add up to big trouble for the residents of our cities, who are going to be caught up in them if they come to pass.  (That's a big part of why, a few years ago, Miss D. and I moved from where we were, in Nashville, to where we are, in north Texas.  We've insulated ourselves against many of the problems of big cities by doing so, and we now live in an environment where people are much better prepared to handle such problems if they should arise.)

Don't take my word for it.  Read the following articles, and consider the urban reality they describe or foresee.  They're all important.  Don't just read one or two.  Read them all, to get the full picture.

• There's a lot of material out there on defending yourself in an urban environment.  Read my earlier article on the subject, and follow the links it contains.  You'll learn a lot.
• "Occupied".  Quote: "The more you can immobilize, slow down, or simply destroy vehicle infrastructure, the more you can handicap their movements, the faster you will get the change you want in the world."  I can testify from personal experience that the techniques described here really work.  I'm informed that rioters are already deploying them.
• Want an even simpler method of disrupting vehicle traffic?  Try "Caltrops and Systems Disruption".  Anyone can make a caltrop, very easily.  If you had a few vans or pickups scattering them on major highways and transport arteries, pretty soon your urban road network would be clogged for hours, if not days.
• Three recent articles from Greg Ellifritz:  "Surviving Mob Attacks on Your Vehicle", "Dealing with Molotov Cocktails and Fire Bombs", and "Playing with Fire".  You're watching those play out on our streets right now.  Pay attention, and learn.
• How easily can violence disrupt normal policing?  How about one man disrupting an entire major city's police department?  Read about "The Manhunt for Christopher Dorner".  Note how the entire Los Angeles-area law enforcement establishment was essentially paralyzed.  If one man could do that, what could half a dozen or a dozen do?  A score?  A hundred?
• What about the electricity supply?  Without it, a modern city basically shuts down.  Read about a 2013 "sniper" attack on an electrical sub-station in California, and the millions of dollars in damage it caused.  The electricity supplier was able to route around that damage, because it was only one sub-station.  What if it had been five, or ten, or twenty?  Fifty?  A hundred?  That could take out an entire city's electrical infrastructure, and it wouldn't be hard to do.
• Do you think the threats I've described so far are unlikely, beyond the capacity of today's rioters?  Think again after you read "Bricks, fires, frozen bottle projectiles: the organized tactics of America’s violent rioters".  Quote: "Police say the current riots are the most sophisticated and coordinated in years with supply lines, medics and communications."  Read the whole thing.  Another point:  if rioters are that organized, what makes you think anti-riot or counter-riot efforts won't rapidly become just as well organized?
• You don't need assault rifles and artillery to disrupt a riot.  The humble .22 rifle (available by the tens of millions in homes across America) and a few home-made devices will do just as well, in the hands of those who know how to use them.  Read Aesop's fictional scenario "Tomorrow".  I'll guaran-damn-tee you there are those planning something like that, right now.  (It's not far-fetched, either:  real-world riot control in Israel uses precisely the same .22 rifles.  It's already a proven technique.)
• If you step up to centerfire rifles, the carnage can be that much greater.  I've previously referenced Matt Bracken's semi-fictional "When The Music Stops:  How America's Cities May Explode In Violence".  If you haven't read it before, read it now.  I'm as sure as I can be that there are those already planning such a response to the current riots.  Let's hope and pray it doesn't happen.
• For a real-world illustration of the use of modern rifles in riot control, read "42 Knees in One Day: Israeli Snipers Open Up About Shooting Gaza Protesters".  That's current operational reality.  It could very easily be employed by civilians, on both sides of a riot.  What if they weren't only aiming at knees?
• You may think you can rely on first responders to come to your help if things get out of hand - but what happens if the rioters prevent that help from arriving?  It happened, just a few days ago.  That's just one incident.  What if there are a bunch of them?  What if there are so many that all ambulances, fire engines, etc. are tied up responding to earlier calls, and you have to wait for them until they have time to get to you?  You can't wait inside a burning building - but if you go outside, you may be targeted by rioters.  What are you going to do?

I'm not trying to make you panic with those articles and links.  I'm trying to show you what may happen, what can happen, and - in some cases - what already is happening.  Unless and until we realize how fragile is the cocoon of our everyday urban existence, we won't be prepared to deal with threats to it, and we won't have our own response planned and ready to deploy if necessary.

We live in dangerous times.  Be as prepared for them as possible.  Have a basic stockpile of emergency supplies, have a gun (preferably guns) for each adult in your family, and be prepared to get out in a hurry (if possible, before trouble arrives) rather than defend what's basically an indefensible position.  No matter how emotionally attached you may be to your home, mere property is not worth dying for.

Peter

Burning questions about vehicle safety

Two recent vehicle safety reports caught my eye.  I thought they might interest readers as well.

The first concerns water bottles in vehicles.

It turns out that if you keep a plastic bottle of water in your car, you need to be very mindful of where you leave it. Anyone who has watched a survival reality show knows that water in a clear plastic bottle can work in the same way as a magnifying glass, focusing the sun's light onto one spot. That means if the sun hits a bottle in your automobile just the right way, it could actually start a fire in your car.

Idaho Power uploaded a video to show just how it can happen.



... with the right circumstances it is very possible, and if there are papers, clothes or trash in a car, it could ignite, so stay hydrated this summer, but be careful where you leave your bottles.

There's more at the link.

The second concerns hand sanitizer.

The Western Lakes Fire District of Oconomowoc, Wisconsin, shared an explosive photograph Thursday as a warning to all you motorists trying to be hyper-vigilant about the coronavirus this summer.

Leave your hand sanitizer in a hot car and your vehicle’s interior could end up a fire scene.

“By its nature, most hand sanitizer is alcohol-based and therefore flammable,” the fire officials wrote on Facebook May 21, alongside a photo of a driver-side door interior that had been mangled and melted by hand sanitizer.

“Keeping it in your car during hot weather, exposing it to sun causing magnification of light through the bottle — and particularly being next to open flame while smoking in vehicles or grilling while enjoying this weekend — can lead to disaster,” they explained.

The first responders, who use their social-media presence to educate their community on common fire hazards, added that clear water bottles also pose an explosion risk. They included a link to the National Fire Protection Association’s YouTube video with more warnings on hand sanitizer combustion.

Again, more at the link.

In our current painfully bright sunlight (yes, it's literally painful without sunglasses) and accompanying hundred-degree-plus temperatures in northern Texas, I'll certainly keep those warnings in mind!




Peter

Tracking US personnel through their love of beer

Bellingcat reports:

Surprise! The beer-rating app Untappd can be used to track the location history of military personnel. The social network has over eight million mostly European and North American users, and its features allow researchers to uncover sensitive information about said users at military and intelligence locations around the world.

For people in the military, neither drinking beer nor using social media is newsworthy on its own. But Untappd users log hundreds, often thousands of time-stamped location data points. These locations are neatly sorted in over 900 categories, which can be as diverse and specific as “botanic garden.” “strip club,” “gay bar,” “west-Ukrainian restaurant,” and “airport gate.” As the result of this, the app allows anyone to trace the movements of other users between sensitive locations — as well as their favorite bars, hotels, restaurants, neighbourhoods, and, sometimes, even private residences.

Examples of users that can be tracked this way include a U.S. drone pilot, along with a list of both domestic and overseas military bases he has visited, a naval officer, who checked in at the beach next to Guantanamo’s bay detention center as well as several times at the Pentagon, and a senior intelligence officer with over seven thousand check-ins, domestic and abroad. Senior officials at the U.S. Department of Defense and the U.S. Air Force are included as well.

Cross-referencing these check-ins with other social media makes it easy to find these individuals’ homes. Their profiles and the pictures they post also reveal family, friends, and colleagues.

There's more at the link.

The article goes on to reveal the location of the CIA training base known as "The Farm", based on Untappd data.  I daresay the CIA isn't terribly happy about that.

This sort of thing must be an ongoing nightmare for security specialists.  Russia has gone so far as to ban the possession (let alone the use) of smartphones by its military personnel assigned to locations such as the Ukrainian separatist "states", Syria, etc.  Needless to say, such prohibition is honored more in the breach than in the observance, which is how many photographs taken in those areas have been circulated in the West.  The US armed forces have imposed similar (although less draconian) restrictions, and have faced similar problems.  Remember how a fitness tracking app revealed the locations of otherwise secret US bases, a few years ago?

How many more such tell-tale apps are out there, in how many countries?  One suspects that US intelligence services may by now have a specialist division checking such data in every nation around the world, to see what intelligence might be gleaned from them.  I'm willing to bet China and Russia, and probably Israel, are doing likewise.

Peter

If you haven't got a gun, GET ONE. NOW.

Over the past few weeks and months, I've harped on personal security and self-defense issues, particularly in the light of the coronavirus pandemic and the additional stresses it's brought upon our society.

• I pointed out how COVID-19 was increasing the risks to our personal security.
• I described how I was using my "lockdown time" to upgrade some friends' guns, and wrote a three part series of articles about personal defense rifles.
• I encouraged readers to use their lockdown time to maintain and improve their shooting skills, and offered suggestions on how to do so, even in your own back yard.

I also forecast the likely reaction of the authorities to urban unrest - a forecast that has proved itself sadly accurate during recent events.  Amongst other things, I said:

Former SEAL Matt Bracken wrote an article back in 2012:  "When The Music Stops – How America’s Cities May Explode In Violence" (link updated to new site).  If you haven't read it before, I recommend you do so now.  It may be over-the-top . . . but then again, it may not.  I've seen very similar scenarios to those he portrays in other countries, and the consequences were just as dire as he foresees (including the retaliation of those trying to defend themselves and their neighborhoods).  It can happen here too:  and right now, with so many people out of work, kids out of school, jobs lost, essential goods in short supply, people confined to their homes without any relief from family and other pressures, and the overall stress of a sudden, massive change in the way we live, I'm expecting social unrest in the USA in many forms.  This can and will impact our personal security in many ways.

In the event of urban rioting and violence, I expect the authorities to concentrate their law enforcement efforts on what they perceive as worth defending.  They will effectively abandon more violent neighborhoods (and those living in them) to their own devices, seeking instead to protect more peaceful areas from being dragged into the downward spiral.  This is a cold, hard calculation based on the resources available.  Each city has only so many security personnel available.  If they get too thinly stretched, the only answer is to pull them back into a defensible perimeter around trouble spots and let the fires burn themselves out, so to speak.

. . .

If you live in or near a major US city, particularly one with a large homeless population and/or a serious inner-city crime problem, you need to be aware that you're at greater risk of exposure to such problems.  If you doubt that, consider that retailers in those cities are already preparing for it.  (Some claim that's only because their insurance companies insist on it.  Well, why do you think they insist?  Isn't it because they have a fairly good idea of what to expect?)  Here are recent pictures of landmark stores in, respectively, Chicago, New York City and San Francisco.  Notice anything similar? ... If those stores (and/or their insurers) see good reason to prepare for trouble, why aren't we doing what we can to prepare as well?

There's more at the link, including the pictures mentioned in the excerpt above.

If you were wondering why I was writing those articles, and making those observations, the riots of the past few days should explain them all.  They were ostensibly "spontaneous" in reaction to the killing of George Floyd, but in reality they were planned ahead of time.  I saw this coming.  So did many people who are alert to the "signs of the times".

The bottom line in this whole mess is that when it comes to personal security during a riot, we're on our own.

It is now a well-established legal principle in the United States that police officers and police departments are not legally responsible to refusing to intervene in cases where private citizens are in imminent danger or even in the process of being victimized. The US Supreme Court has made it clear that law enforcement agencies are not required to provide protection to the citizens who are forced to pay for police services, year in and year out.  In cases of civil unrest ... be prepared to receive approximately nothing from police in terms of protecting property, or life and limb.

Again, more at the link.  Bold, underlined text is my emphasis - and it's being confirmed almost daily.  As just one example, try Raleigh, NC.

You can't defend yourself, or your family, or your home, or your small business, with kind words and a cup of coffee.  You need the right tools to do so, particularly in the face of hate-filled rioters who want nothing more or less than anarchy and destruction.  To stop them, you need a weapon - and not just any weapon, either.  It may have to cope with multiple attackers, advancing fast, some of them also armed.  You need something to deal with that situation - something like a personal defense rifle.  As Mancow Muller tweeted two days ago (click the image below to be taken to the post on Twitter):

In their current campaign against police, progressive and left-wing activists are ironically underscoring the need for citizens to arm themselves.  Consider this photograph, courtesy of Spectator USA, taken in Brooklyn, New York City, a few days ago.

If there are to be no police, who will protect us except ourselves?  Nobody!  There couldn't be a clearer illustration of the stupidity of the progressive Left.  They prattle on with their anti-gun rhetoric, yet want to abolish law enforcement officers and agencies - which will make it even more important that we arm ourselves!  Talk about a contradiction in terms . . .

Those who claim that police will protect us, and therefore we don't need guns, are full of it.  As Kurt Schlichter observes:

The Chinese coronavirus fiasco, the shocking killing of George Floyd, and the riots ... have taught the American people several things. One is that a surprising and sad number of law enforcement officers are willing to follow cheesy, stupid, and unconstitutional orders. A quick tour of social media will horrify you with the damage done ... by video of stupid cops hassling civilians for going outside or trying to attend church. The people who long backed the blue feel stabbed in the back, and LEOs are going to have to work to earn back the support they lost because a lot of their comrades sided with ... bullies against the people.

Similarly, we have learned that the police are not necessarily going to be there for us. From that gooey tub of cowardice in Florida who let kids be murdered while he stood with a weapon outside the school – I can’t even type those words without sputtering in rage – to the [Minneapolis Police Department] running away and letting criminals burn their building, do you feel comfortable putting your lives in the hands of such government employees? The one inspirational sight during the riots was a bunch of black Americans with modern rifles defending their businesses.

. . .

Buy guns and ammunition, because there can be no truly free people that is not also an armed people.

More at the link.

There can be no further compromise on this point.  We've compromised enough - and look where it's got us!  As Ronald Reagan pointed out as far back as 1964, in the context of Soviet-American relations:

If we continue to accommodate, continue to back and retreat, eventually we have to face the final demand -- the ultimatum ... and someday when the time comes to deliver the final ultimatum, our surrender will be voluntary, because by that time we will have been weakened from within spiritually, morally, and economically.

Reagan's words apply just as well to the crisis in which we find ourselves today.  Isn't that precisely what the progressive Left has tried to do to the American people - weaken us from within?  Force us into an ever greater reliance (or, rather, dependence) on the government to do everything for us, while undermining any attempt at self-reliance?  The late President Ford had an answer for that:  "A government big enough to give you everything you want is a government big enough to take from you everything you have."

Remember, too, that if you use a firearm in self-defense, no matter how legally justified you may be in doing so, the police will confiscate that firearm for as long as it's needed for evidence.  It may disappear into the evidence locker for months, or even years.  If you don't have another gun handy to take its place, you're going to be disarmed, just when the friends of those against whom you defended yourself may come looking for you.  Don't just have one gun.  Have more than one, and make sure you know how to use them all, and have ammunition and magazines for them.  Also, if possible, and if it's legal where you live, make sure that at least some of them are "off-paper" private purchases, not recorded or registered in any official documentation.  If gun confiscators don't know you have them, their job will be that much more difficult.

Guns you need:

1. A concealable defensive firearm, able to be carried on your person, or in a vehicle, or anywhere else.  A semi-automatic pistol is the most practical solution, with a revolver a second choice.  The larger the magazine capacity, the better.
2. A long gun (rifle or shotgun) that will provide more "punch" than a handgun and/or reach out to longer ranges.  I recommend an AR-15 rifle or equivalent (the KelTec SU16 is another good choice, and very lightweight, too).  There are many alternatives, such as an AK-47-type weapon, or a lever-action rifle, or a pistol-caliber carbine.  I recommend magazine-fed semi-auto actions, for ease of use and speed of reloading.  In an urban unrest situation, use your long gun to defend yourself against a threat or threats at a safer, longer distance than you can with only a handgun.  Keep them as far away from you as possible.
3. Get (1) and (2) above for every adult in your family, and every teen mature enough to assist in defending the family.
4. Every defensive firearm should have a minimum of five magazines, plus enough quality ammunition for practice and defensive use.  It's helpful if everyone has weapons that can use the same magazines and ammunition.  This makes life easier all round.  Furthermore, get training for everybody in how to use their weapons.  Just because you own a musical instrument doesn't make you a musician;  and just because you own a firearm doesn't make you a gunfighter.
5. Once every adult or near-adult has a primary defensive weapon, plus enough magazines, plus enough ammunition, consider getting them a second weapon of the same type, to use if the first is impounded as evidence or becomes inoperable for some reason.  Instead of a second rifle, consider something like an AR-15 pistol, which is much more compact than a carbine or rifle but almost as powerful, fires the same ammunition as the larger weapon, and is very effective over 100-150 yard ranges - precisely what one needs for an urban riot.

Those are minimum recommendations.  Many shooters already have far more.  I recommend more, if you can afford it.  Even if you're short of money, get at least one viable defensive firearm and ammunition, and keep it handy.  It's like a parachute.  You may never need it:  but if you do need it in a hurry, it'll be too late to go out and buy one!

Some people of faith may question whether they're not supposed to "turn the other cheek" when violence is offered.  Speaking as a retired pastor and chaplain, I submit that's not the case.  In the context of an attack on one's faith, that may be appropriate:  but the current riots have nothing to do with faith, and everything to do with thuggish brutality and intimidation.  I offer two Scripture verses, quoting Jesus directly, to guide your response:

• "When a strong man, fully armed, guards his own palace, his goods are in peace."  (Luke 11:21)
• "He who has no sword, let him sell his garment and buy one." (Luke 22:36)
  

Go read Matt Bracken's article, and pay careful attention to it.  (Link updated to new site.)  I'm not advocating or endorsing urban terrorism - I've seen too much of it at first hand to ever do that, as regular readers will know.  Nevertheless, I know for a fact that the mutual security groups of individuals to whom he refers are already forming in many states.  People aren't blind.  They can see reality, particularly when it slaps them in the face.  Follow their example.

As bad as things are now, I believe that worse things are coming.  Get ready for them.  If you think that I'm paranoid, or exaggerating, answer me this:  would you, even a week ago, have predicted that a major metropolitan police department would abandon one of its precinct headquarters to rioters, without resistance, and allow them to burn it down?  It just happened.  Welcome to the new reality!  Are you willing to entrust your safety and security, and that of your loved ones, to a law enforcement agency like that?  I'm certainly not!

If you're in a city, or town, or suburb, or street, that's basically indefensible, plan to move as quickly as possible to a safer environment.  Pre-pack essential gear, supplies, medication, important documents, pets, etc. and be ready to toss them into your vehicles and get out as fast as possible.  Be prepared to defend yourself and your loved ones as you travel.  If you're staying put, be prepared to defend your home and family and possessions.  Get to know people around you.  If you decide you can trust them - and don't give your trust lightly! - form small networks of your own, to safeguard your neighborhood, families and property if worse should come to worst.  Don't delay.  DO IT NOW.  You won't have time for such preparations when the chips are down.  Pay attention to tactics for dealing with a riot or unrest situation, and rehearse them if possible with your family.  At the very least, discuss them and make sure everybody understands what you want them to do.

Keep in mind that as far as the progressive media and left-wing city administrators are concerned, if you defend yourself against rioters, you're likely to be pre-judged to be the guilty party.  Surveillance cameras are everywhere;  citizens with cellphones can and will record video, audio and photographs of what happens around them;  social media posts can and will be used against you;  communications (cellphone, e-mail, whatever) are not secure against interception, and may be used as evidence.  Learn to operate "off the grid", communicating only in person or by hand-carried communications that are destroyed as soon as they're received.  Be a "gray man".  If you have to stop being "gray" in order to defend yourself, do so as quickly and discreetly as possible, then go right back to being "gray" as you leave the area, or blend back into your surroundings.  Try not to make yourself a target for unwelcome attention, before, during or after the fact.

Let me state flatly, once and for all, that every adult American needs to be ready, willing, able, and equipped to defend themselves against this onslaught on our society.  Such defenses need to include firearms, training in their use, and sufficient ammunition to get the job done.  If you don't have all of those, it's long gone time that you remedied the position.  Don't delay, and don't say you can't afford to do that.  You can't afford NOT to do it.

Peter

These riots are the latest round in an organized attack on our republic

If anybody thinks the current riots erupting around the United States are just a reaction to the tragic death of George Floyd, or an uprising against racism in this country, they're worse than fools.  They're deluded idiots.  They're blind to reality.

No "spontaneous riot" sees pallet-loads of bricks mysteriously dropped off in major city centers, precisely where rioters will be passing in a very short time.  (There are innumerable reports and videos of them - see here for one on-the-spot recording.)  You couldn't possibly ask for stronger evidence of planning and organization behind the riots.  I also note that almost every city where rioting has broken out has been Democratic Party-controlled, with administrations that will reliably leash their police and security forces to give the rioters more or less free rein.  Out of 39 cities I've seen reported, there's only one exception that I can identify so far.

(One does wonder what Organizing for America has been up to.  I've heard from some of my cop friends in cities beset by unrest - the same friends who gave me the "straight dope" about cartel difficulties caused by the coronavirus - that OfA activists in their areas are behaving very suspiciously indeed.  They also report that some OfA activists are already known to them from their activities and sympathies in support of Antifa, as well as organizations connected to and/or funded by the Open Society Foundations.  Here's one example.  What price cross-pollination of activists?  My informants have proved accurate before, and I'm willing to bet they're accurate again.  I'm also informed that their reports are being forwarded to a very high level indeed.  Let's hope suitable action will result.)

Almost every TV station, newspaper or other mainstream outlet has tried to tie the riots to President Trump, blaming him for them (or for making them worse).  The same goes for opinion and editorial columnists.  It's even extended to fake pictures, seeking to tie the Minneapolis police officer to the Trump campaign.  (On the other hand, I can't recall a single picture of the President throwing a rock, or taking a swing at a police officer, or breaking a window, or starting a fire in a business, or looting.  Makes you wonder who the real criminals are, doesn't it?)  What's more, social media appears to be allowing rioters and criminals to coordinate their activities, selecting targets and encouraging others to attack them - while those same social media are flagging the President's social media posts as untrustworthy.  Makes you think, doesn't it?

This incessant propaganda drumbeat makes it obvious that the mainstream media are taking their talking points from a central source, and parroting them like the obedient slaves to ideology that they've become.  If there's no smoke without fire, the mainstream media are a raging conflagration, a progressive holocaust.  You can't accept anything they're saying about the riots without first examining it very carefully, to strip away the partisan political rhetoric and get to the underlying facts.  If you think that's merely an aberration, you have no idea what's going on.

(Want an example?  Look at what Van Jones had to say on Friday about racism in America.  Note his background, particularly in the Obama administration.  Then consider Rahm Emanuel's [another leftist] oft-quoted dictum about never letting a serious crisis go to waste.  Put two and two together.  If you don't get four, you need math classes.)

Accusations that endemic racism in American society being to blame for the riots are nothing more than a pretext, an ideological fig-leaf to cover the planning and organization behind these events.  To anybody with two working brain cells to rub together, the lie is obvious.  As Sixties-era leftist activists knew (and recited repeatedly), "you don't need a weatherman to know which way the wind blows".  "Spontaneous" protests are not this well arranged, so long in advance, needing only a spark to kindle the flame.  The death of George Floyd provided that spark, and those behind the riots are fanning it into a roaring conflagration for all they're worth.

"But why now?" I hear readers ask.  Why is this violence erupting at this time, rather than earlier or later?  The reason isn't hard to find.  Attorney-General Barr has been overseeing an investigation into the actions of the so-called "Deep State" and the Obama administration in the non-existent scandal over Russian collusion with the Trump campaign.  The more that comes out about that scandal, the more it appears that very senior figures in the previous administration, and very senior officials in the executive branch, conspired to pervert the course of justice and overturn - or at least obstruct - the result of a democratic election.  It appears very likely that criminal charges will result.  The latest Senate inquiry into elements of the scandal is to open today.  What better way to divert attention from the indefensible, almost certainly criminal actions of the progressive Left than to start a riot or three?  If there's no connection between those elements, I'll go out and buy a hat so that I can eat it!

Heads need to roll over this series of events.  Those heads should be those of the people who planned and organized this violence, and are still pulling the strings.  If their heads roll in a literal sense, as well as a figurative one, I won't be upset.  They deserve nothing less.  They have blood on their hands - the blood of the victims of the riots - and should be treated accordingly.

The situation also has grave implications for our personal security.  I'll address those in another article in a few hours' time.  Meanwhile, "trust in God and keep your powder dry."  You may need it.




Peter

Saturday Snippet: The weaker sex (hippopotamus version)

We've encountered the late naturalist Gerald Durrell on more than one occasion in these pages.  I thought it was time for another extract from one of his many books.  This one's from "A Zoo in my Luggage", an account of his second visit to Bafut in what was then British Cameroon (today part of the modern state of Cameroon), to collect animals for what would become his own zoo, dedicated to the conservation and preservation of threatened and endangered species.

On its way to Bafut, the expedition stopped over in the town of Mamfe to collect animals.  A trip to investigate a report of a very large python turned into a riverine adventure.

To reach the area of country in which our quarry was waiting, we had to go down the hill and cross the river by the ferry, a large, banana-shaped canoe which appeared to have been constructed about three centuries ago, and to have been deteriorating slowly ever since. It was paddled by a very old man who looked in immediate danger of dying of a heart attack, and he was accompanied by a small boy whose job it was to bale out. This was something of an unequal struggle, for the boy had a small rusty tin for the job, while the sides of the canoe were as watertight as a colander. Inevitably, by the time one reached the opposite bank one was sitting in about six inches of water. When we arrived with our equipment on the water-worn steps in the granite cliff that formed the landing-stage, we found the ferry was at the opposite shore, so while Ben, Agustine and the enormous African (whom we had christened Gargantua) lifted their voices and roared at the ferryman to return with all speed, Bob and I squatted in the shade and watched the usual crowd of Mamfe people bathing and washing in the brown waters below.

Swarms of small boys leapt shrieking off the cliffs and splashed into the water, and then shot to the surface again, their palms and the soles of their feet gleaming shell pink, their bodies like polished chocolate. The girls, more demure, bathed in their sarongs, only to emerge from the water with the cloth clinging to their bodies so tightly that it left nothing to the imagination. One small toddler, who could not have been more than five or six, made his way carefully down the cliff, his tongue protruding with concentration, carrying on his head an enormous water-jar. On reaching the edge of the water he did not pause to remove the jar from his head, or to take off his sarong. He walked straight into the water and waded slowly and determinedly out into the river until he completely disappeared; only the jar could be seen moving mysteriously along the surface of the water. At length this too vanished. There was a moment’s pause, and then the jar reappeared, this time moving shorewards, and eventually, beneath it, the boy’s head bobbed up. He gave a tremendous snort to expel the air from his lungs, and then struggled grimly towards the beach, the now brimming jar on his head. When he reached the shore he edged the jar carefully on to a ledge of rock, and then re-entered the water, still wearing his sarong. From some intricate fold in his garment he produced a small fragment of Lifebuoy soap, and proceeded to rub it all over himself and the sarong with complete impartiality. Presently, when he had worked up such a lather all over himself that he looked like an animated pink snowman, he ducked beneath the surface to wash off the soap, waded ashore, settled the jar once more on his head and slowly climbed the cliff and disappeared. It was the perfect example of the African application of time-and-motion study.

By this time the ferry had arrived, and Ben and Agustine were arguing hotly with its aged occupant. Instead of taking us straight across the river, they wanted him to paddle us about half a mile upstream to a large sandbank. This would save us having to walk about a mile along the bank to reach the path that led to the forest. The old man appeared to be singularly obstinate about the proposal.

‘What’s the matter with him, Ben?’ I inquired.

‘Eh! Dis na foolish man, sah,’ said Ben, turning to me in exasperation, ‘’e no agree for take us for up de river.’

‘Why you no agree, my friend?’ I asked the old man. ‘If you go take us I go pay you more money and I go dash [tip] you.’

‘Masa,’ said the old man firmly, ‘dis na my boat, and if I go lose um I no fit catch money again … I no get chop for my belly … I no get one-one penny.’

‘But how you go lose you boat?’ I asked in amazement, for I knew this strip of river and there were no rapids or bad currents along it.

‘Ipopo, Masa,’ explained the old man.

I stared at the ferryman, wondering what on earth he was talking about. Was Ipopo perhaps some powerful local juju I had not come across before?

‘Dis Ipopo,’ I asked soothingly, ‘which side ’e live?’

‘Wah! Masa never see um?’ asked the old man in astonishment. ‘’E dere dere for water close to D.O.’s [District Officer's] house … ’e big like so-so motor … ’e de holla … ’e de get power too much.’

‘What’s he talking about?’ asked Bob in bewilderment.

And suddenly it dawned on me. ‘He’s talking about the hippo herd in the river below the D.O.’s house,’ I explained, ‘but it’s such a novel abbreviation of the word that he had me foxed for a moment.’

‘Does he think they’re dangerous?’

‘Apparently, though I can’t think why. They were perfectly placid last time I was here.’

‘Well, I hope they’re still placid,’ said Bob.

I turned to the old man again. ‘Listen, my friend. If you go take us for up dis water, I go pay you six shilling and I go dash you cigarette, eh? And if sometime dis ipopo go damage dis your boat I go pay for new one, you hear?’

‘I hear, sah.’

‘You agree?’

‘I agree, sah,’ said the old man, avarice struggling with caution. We progressed slowly upstream, squatting in half an inch of water in the belly of the canoe.

‘I suppose they can’t really be dangerous,’ said Bob casually, trailing his hand nonchalantly in the water.

‘When I was here last I used to go up to within thirty feet of them in a canoe and take photographs,’ I said.

‘Dis ipopo get strong head now, sah,’ said Ben tactlessly. ‘Two months pass dey kill three men and break two boats.’

‘That’s a comforting thought,’ said Bob.

Ahead of us the brown waters were broken in many places by rocks. At any other time they would have looked exactly like rocks but now each one looked exactly like the head of a hippo, a cunning, maniacal hippo, lurking in the dark waters, awaiting our approach. Ben, presumably remembering his tale of daring with the bush-cow, attempted to whistle, but it was a feeble effort, and I noticed that he scanned the waters ahead anxiously. After all, a hippo that has developed the habit of attacking canoes gets a taste for it, like a man-eating tiger, and will go out of his way to be unpleasant, apparently regarding it as a sport. I was not feeling in the mood for gambolling in twenty feet of murky water with half a ton of sadistic hippo.

The old man, I noticed, was keeping our craft well into the bank, twisting and turning so that we were, as far as possible, always in shallow water. The cliff here was steep, but well supplied with footholds in case of emergency, for the rocks lay folded in great layers like untidy piles of fossilized magazines, overgrown with greenery. The trees that grew on top of the cliffs spread their branches well out over the water, so that we travelled in a series of fish-like jerks up a tunnel of shade, startling the occasional kingfisher that whizzed across our bows like a vivid blue shooting-star, or a black-and-white wattled plover that flapped away upstream, tittering imbecilically to itself, with its feet grazing the water, and long yellow wattles flapping absurdly on each side of its beak.

Gradually we rounded the bend of the river, and there, about three hundred yards ahead of us on the opposite shore, lay the white bulk of the sandbank, frilled with ripples. The old man gave a grunt of relief at the sight, and started to paddle more swiftly.

‘Nearly there,’ I said gaily, ‘and not a hippo in sight.’

The words were hardly out of my mouth when a rock we were passing some fifteen feet away suddenly rose out of the water and gazed at us with bulbous astonished eyes, snorting out two slender fountains of spray, like a miniature whale.

Fortunately, our gallant crew resisted the impulse to leap out of the canoe en masse and swim for the bank. The old man drew in his breath with a sharp hiss, and dug his paddle deep into the water, so that the canoe pulled up short in a swirl and clop of bubbles. Then we sat and stared at the hippo, and the hippo sat and stared at us. Of the two, the hippo seemed the more astonished. The chubby, pink-grey face floated on the surface of the water like a disembodied head at a séance. The great eyes stared at us with the innocent appraisal of a baby. The ears flicked back and forth, as if waving to us. The hippo sighed deeply and moved a few feet nearer, still looking at us with wide-eyed innocence. Then, suddenly, Agustine let out a shrill whoop that made us all jump and nearly upset the canoe. We shushed him furiously, while the hippo continued its scrutiny of us unabashed.

‘No de fear,’ said Agustine in a loud voice, ‘na woman.’

He seized the paddle from the old man’s reluctant grasp, and proceeded to beat on the water with the blade, sending up a shower of spray. The hippo opened its mouth in a gigantic yawn to display a length of tooth that had to be seen to be believed. Then, suddenly, and with apparently no muscular effort, the great head sank beneath the surface. There was a moment’s pause, during which we were all convinced that the beast was ploughing through the water somewhere directly beneath us, then the head rose to the surface again, this time, to our relief, about twenty yards up-river. It snorted out two more jets of spray, waggled its ears seductively and sank again, only to reappear in a moment or so still farther upstream. The old man grunted and retrieved his paddle from Agustine.

‘Agustine, why you do dat foolish ting?’ I asked in what I hoped was a steady and trenchant tone of voice.

‘Sah, dat ipopo no be man … na woman dat,’ Agustine explained, hurt by my lack of faith in him.

‘How you know?’ I demanded.

‘Masa, I savvay all dis ipopo for dis water,’ he explained, ‘dis one na woman. Ef na man ipopo ’e go chop us one time. But dis woman one no get strong head like ’e husband.’

‘Well, thank God for the weaker sex,’ I said to Bob, as the old man, galvanized into activity, sent the canoe shooting diagonally across the river, so that it ground on to the sandbank in a shower of pebbles.

Lest you think the boatman's caution was unwarranted, consider that hippo are among the most dangerous animals on the African continent.  They routinely kill hundreds of people every year.  Here's a brief video of a hippo charging a boat on the Chobe River in Botswana (an area I used to know) in 2015.  He wasn't bluffing, either!

Far too many people have a mental image of hippos as the miniskirt-wearing dancers in Disney's Fantasia.

That image couldn't be further from the truth!  As I've noted before, if you see a hippo "yawning" . . . that's not a yawn!

Peter

How is it possible for people to be this stupid?

I'm not on Facebook or similar services, so I appear to have missed the latest trend among some gun-owners (for which I'm devoutly grateful!).  However, Vice has enlightened me.

Gun people are taking pictures of themselves aiming weapons at their dicks. The safety is off, their finger hovers on the trigger, and the barrel of the weapon is pointed straight at their genitals . . . pointing a gun at your penis has . . . everything to do with ironically mocking basic safety in gun culture. The trend is about a year old and it was born in the fires of Facebook’s gun groups. On one side are responsible gun owners, on the other is a group of men aiming a deadly weapon at their dicks to prove a point that they can only vaguely explain.

Like with any other fandom, there’s levels to gun culture. In the online gun community there are "normies" and "fudds." Normies cover a range of people, anyone from a basic handgun owner to the completely uninitiated. Fudds—as in Bugs Bunny hunter Elmer Fudd—are the old heads, weirdos, and dedicated gun nuts. Some fudds hate normies and the way normies talk about guns. Even the normies who know their way around a firearm.

A chief complaint among fudds is the normie’s devotion to safety, typically manifested as knee-jerk praise of trigger discipline. For the uninitiated, watching trigger discipline refers to the act of keeping your finger off the trigger of a firearm until you’re ready to fire the weapon. It’s a safety basic, along with never pointing a gun at anyone or anything you don’t intend to harm, and always assuming a gun is loaded. Trigger and muzzle discipline will tell you a lot about a person holding a firearm. Typically, if they keep the muzzle away from the camera and their finger off the trigger—even while holding the grip—they know their way around a weapon.

. . .

To combat this apparent scourge of responsible gun ownership, some fudds have taken to posting pictures of themselves pointing allegedly loaded weapons at their own dicks, with their finger on the trigger. If this doesn’t make sense to you, you’re not alone.

There's more at the link.

All I can say is, I want nothing to do with idiots who behave like that.  If they can behave so stupidly, they're dangerous to be around.  They should stay as far away from me as possible, thank you very much!  I certainly won't be numbering them among my friends;  and if any of my friends were to behave that way, they wouldn't remain my friends any longer than it took for me to find out.  As Einstein observed, "Only two things are infinite, the universe and human stupidity, and I'm not sure about the former."  They perfectly illustrate his point by their actions.

However, I don't want them to stop.  In fact, I want them to make sure their guns are loaded, then carry right on behaving like that.  You see, that way, sooner or later (hopefully the former), they're going to shoot off the appendages for which they so clearly no longer have any rational use.  That done, they won't be reproducing more of their kind to plague the rest of us!

Idiots . . . blithering . . . one each . . . sheesh!!!




Peter

Unexpected airport traffic

I had to smile at reports that three deer had a close encounter with Royal Air Force Typhoon fighter aircraft at RAF Coningsby recently.

Cute, I suppose, but animals on the runways and taxiways can be a real hazard.  In flying around Africa for many years, I grew used to pilots of smaller aircraft (from 40-50 seat regional airliners to small 4- or 6-seat puddle-jumpers) having to "buzz" over the runway at very low altitude, to scare off animals grazing or resting there.  Larger animals (of which Africa has a gracious plenty) would often be so used to this that they'd ignore the nasty buzzing creatures overhead, and go right on doing whatever they were doing.  Only when the pilot was absolutely sure that there were no animals within "hazard range" could he proceed - and even then, a sudden unexpected run by an animal could lead to disaster.  It's a not uncommon occurrence.

Miss D. assures me that the same thing has been known to happen in Alaska, where she learned to fly.  She says even larger airliners, like Boeing 737's, sometimes have to "clear the runway" at more remote airports in that state before they can touch down.  Apparently polar bears regard small aircraft filled with people in the same way that we'd regard a tin filled with delicious chunks of meat.  Not a comforting thought, that!

I wonder how a jet fighter pilot in England would react to critters like that on the runway?




Peter

The real peril behind vote-by-mail

Tucker Carlson puts it into a short, concise segment.  This is a "must-see" if you're to understand why certain political parties, pressure groups and influencers are trying to promote universal vote-by-mail as a "solution" to the coronavirus pandemic and the risks it poses.

I think he's right.  If this pressure succeeds, you can effectively say goodbye to democracy in the USA.

Peter

Not a safe place to fall overboard!

An Australian fisherman was sailing his small leisure craft back to shore the other day when he ran into a so-called "bait ball" of small fish, being attacked by dozens of sharks.  The big predators were in a feeding frenzy.

Note the casual way he talks about his boat being bumped by sharks several times.  Me, I'd have been getting the heck out of there as fast as possible!  I've seen (off Seal Island in False Bay near Cape Town) how fast and brutally sharks rip apart their prey.  I'd want to make as certain as possible that I wasn't near enough to be even potentially on their menu!




Peter

The folly of relying on credit to save your fiscal butt

I've long advocated building up an emergency fund and/or "rainy day fund" if at all possible, to help get through hard times if and when they arrive.  However, I know many people who've dismissed that advice.  They've said they simply can't afford to do that on their income, so they'll rely on credit cards and other debt instruments to cover expenses if something goes wrong.

Well, they're now running headlong into the reality of the financial markets.  A lot of them are finding that the credit lines they'd planned on using are either less than they'd expected, or aren't available at all.  For a start, credit card issuers are reducing their exposure to potentially bad debt.  Everyone except those with stellar credit ratings and history is at risk.

A new survey has found that about 25% of card owners in the US had their limits reduced or accounts closed within the past 30 days.

Almost 50 million people saw their credit limits decreased or cards closed involuntarily, according to a CompareCards survey conducted in late April.

There's more at the link.  Bold, underlined text is my emphasis.

To make matters worse, credit limits on credit cards can be adjusted by their issuers without specifically notifying card-holders.  Your only notice will be the changed credit limit printed on your monthly statement - and many don't read those in any detail.  That means you could find yourself suddenly maxed out on your credit card, without any prior awareness of that risk.

That new wariness by lenders is extending even to secured debt such as mortgages and home equity lines of credit (HELOC's).

Over the past month, lenders have put in place higher credit-score and down payment requirements, and in some cases stopped issuing certain types of loans altogether, in effect shutting down a large swath of the mortgage market ... The impact has been dramatic, with one model showing mortgage credit availability has plunged by more than 25% since the U.S. outbreak of the virus.

. . .

JPMorgan Chase & Co. tightened its standards last month, requiring borrowers to have minimum credit scores of 700 and to make down payments of 20% of the home price on most mortgages, including refinances if the bank didn’t already manage the loan.

Wells Fargo & Co. increased its minimum credit score to 680 for government loans that it buys from smaller lenders before aggregating them into mortgage bonds.

The banks’ revised standards are far above the typical minimum score of 580 and down payment of 3.5% that borrowers need to qualify for home-buying programs supported by the federal government.

Wells Fargo is no longer letting borrowers refinance their mortgages while cashing out home equity, and both Wells and JPMorgan have suspended new home-equity lines of credit.

Again, more at the link.

That's potentially very bad news indeed if you were relying on a HELOC, or planning to cash out some of your equity in your home, to get you through the present crisis.  For example, if you own more than 50% equity in your home (i.e. the outstanding balance on your mortgage is less than 50% of your home's current market value), you might have planned to draw on that in a financial emergency (such as many of us are facing in these difficult times).  However, now you won't be allowed to access that equity through a HELOC.  That's going to put a big crimp in some people's ability to cope.

I've even heard from some friends that their existing, pre-approved HELOC's have been "frozen" or suspended at their present levels.  For example, they may have been approved for a $25,000 HELOC, but they're only using, say, $12,000 of that facility.  Now they're finding that they can no longer access the remaining balance of the credit they'd already arranged.  That's proving to be a huge financial headache for them.  I know a few who are applying for second mortgages, with different lenders, to make up the sudden shortfall - but that's costing them a lot more in fees and higher interest rates.  Worse, in the present economic climate, sometimes second mortgages are simply not available.

One can't blame lenders for seeking to protect themselves, but if you rely on credit to make ends meet from month to month, that doesn't help you at all.  As I've said so often in the past (for just one example, see here), get out of debt if at all possible, and stay that way!  That's investing in your own future, in the best possible way.  Also, build up some sort of emergency fund as soon as possible.  In fact, I'd go so far as to suggest, if possible, using your government coronavirus stimulus checks to start such a fund, rather than using them to pay off debt or cover other needs.  If you have no emergency financial "cushion" at all, that'll be a whole lot better than nothing.

Some people have told me that they haven't bothered to build up their own emergency "nest egg" because they'll be eligible for unemployment, or some other form of social welfare or entitlement program, if they're laid off or their employer goes bankrupt.  Er . . . not so fast.

People in many states, including New Jersey,  Maine, and Pennsylvania report they haven’t yet gotten a dime from unemployment. In fact, a whopping 71% of jobless Americans haven’t gotten their unemployment payments from March.  Lines at food banks are literally miles long in some areas.

Without a nest egg, and with your usual credit facilities now circumscribed, you may find yourself in the same boat - unless you have something set aside for a rainy day.

If you're still doubtful about the need (or possibility of saving) for an emergency fund, see Aesop's latest.  Scroll down to point #3, and read it.  Slowly and carefully.  Yes, he's talking to you.  Then, go back and read the entire article.  He makes good sense, and underlines everything I've had to say on the subject for the past twelve years or so on this blog.

Peter

Crime and self-defense in a pandemic environment

Contrary to what much of the mainstream news media is reporting, crime and violence appear to be on the increase in at least some larger cities.  I'm hearing that from my contacts in law enforcement (who correctly predicted the supply shortage in illegal drugs that's currently driving up prices and reducing supply across the nation), and now it's emerging in some news reports as well.

Chicago, as usual, is one of the epicenters of the problem.

The streets of Chicago may be largely empty as residents hunker down from coronavirus but some of the city's most deprived neighborhoods are still echoing to the sound of deadly gunfire and raucous partying.

While significant falls in crime have been one of the few positive side effects of lockdowns in much of the United States and elsewhere, they have barely made a dent in the homicide rate in Chicago, a city that has long recorded the most murders in the country.

Chicago police say 56 murders were committed in April despite statewide stay-at-home orders -- only a fraction lower than the 61 for the same month in 2019 -- while last weekend, the first of the new month, four people were killed and 46 others shot and wounded.

. . .

The West Side has some of the city's most crime-ridden neighborhoods and hundreds of people filled the streets there overnight Saturday into Sunday as revelers partied in defiance of stay-at-home orders.

. . .

Chicago police told AFP that they would not "speculate whether or not victims/offenders are abiding by the stay-at-home mandate."

There's more at the link.

Efforts to ease the rate of infection in city jails led to the release of many offenders, who are doubtless contributing to the carnage on Chicago's streets.  So many have been released that the county sheriff's office is running out of electronic monitoring equipment.  To that, the always useful Second City Cop blog retorts:

This has turned into a national joke, freeing criminals (who have demonstrated a complete inability to live by the rules of a civilized society) upon an unsuspecting populace to "prevent" the spread of a virus. Has anyone seen the shooting and killing numbers for May?

I think SCC meant the April numbers, but I've no doubt that the May figures will illustrate an ongoing trend.

Meanwhile, in New York City, the rank-and-file police aren't happy either.

The city’s largest police union is demanding cops get “out of the social distancing enforcement business,” while slamming city officials for “releasing criminals,” “discouraging proactive policing,” and leaving subways “in chaos.”

. . .

[Police Benevolent Association president Patrick] Lynch added that the politicians are “still watering down our laws, releasing real criminals and discouraging proactive enforcement of fare evasion and quality of life issues.”

“As a result, our subways are in chaos and we have hero nurses getting mugged on their way to our hospitals,” he said, referring to a nurse who had her phone torn out of her hand in Times Square on April 26. “As the weather heats up and the pandemic continues to unravel our social fabric, police officers should be allowed to focus on our core public safety mission. If we don’t, the city will fall apart before our eyes.”

Again, more at the link.

By releasing so many thousands of criminals from jails and prisons, in the name of slowing the coronavirus infection rate, the authorities are simply increasing the pressure of crime on the street.  Those released have no jobs to which to return - most employers are still shut down - and little prospect of getting any money in the short term from overloaded bureaucratic social assistance departments and networks.  How do you think they're going to get money for their needs?  You guessed it.  They'll go back to what they do best - crime.

An interesting twist is that some black community leaders and influencers are now urging their followers to consider arming themselves against racist crimes by the white community.  The self-titled "Charlamagne tha God" is one of them.

Sunday on MSNBC, radio host Charlamagne tha God encouraged blacks to buy a gun to protect themselves against “white ISIS” amid the Ahmaud Arbery controversy, who was allegedly killed by two men, Gregory and Travis McMichael, in Georgia on February 23.

Charlamagne tha God said, “My thoughts are rest in peace and condolences to his family. I wish that brother had a gun on him while he was jogging to defend himself against those thugs, those goons, those terrorists. I call them vanilla ISIS. That’s what I call them. They hunted him down like he was a deer. I would tell my brothers and sisters to buy a legal firearm and learn how to use it to protect yourself and your family. I am, and I think when you are a black person in America, owning a legal firearm is a form of self-care. That’s my thoughts on that. I wish he had a gun on him while jogging. I would much rather see him in prison fighting for his freedom as opposed to being in a casket right now.”

More at the link.

I don't disagree with him, but not on racial grounds.  I'd like everybody, regardless of race, age, sex, creed, color or anything else, to be armed, trained, and able to defend themselves against criminal attack.  That would deter many criminals, while at the same time allowing police to focus on their primary task.  Robert Heinlein's famous dictum that "An armed society is a polite society" is as true today as it's ever been.

In New York City, it appears that more and more law-abiding citizens see it that way, too.

With thousands of cops out sick, cocky criminals on the loose, and people running out of money for food and rent because of COVID-19, the Rosario sisters of Staten Island want to arm themselves for what they fear could be a coming crime surge ... But New Yorkers are shut out, with the Empire State one of only five states where gun stores have closed, despite recent guidelines issued by the Department of Homeland Security saying they should be considered essential business.

And forget about even applying for a firearm permit in NYC; the NYPD has closed its licensing office.

. . .

High-profile crimefighters past and present also foresee a long, hot, criminal summer.

“It’s going to be every man for himself again,” said Curtis Sliwa, who founded the Guardian Angels in the infamous summer of 1977, when Son of Sam was on the loose.

“The wealthy see the plywood going up on the Madison Avenue shops and think riots,” he said. “But even if the criminals come to Park Avenue, rich people will buy themselves protection. It’s Park Avenue in Brooklyn we should worry about.

“The thugs feel the fear out there. They see cops aren’t getting out of their squad cars. That’s when bad stuff happens.”

. . .

Bernie Kerik, the police boss during 9/11, remembered how crime also dropped for three weeks after the attacks — then it returned and spiked.

“This is different and could be worse,” Kerik said. “If this shutdown continues through May, it’ll drive people into poverty. Many won’t qualify for government programs or unemployment. These people have to feed their families. Meanwhile, the criminals are emboldened.”

More at the link.

I think we're going to see this problem escalate all through this summer.  I hope and pray I'm wrong . . . but reliable, not-politically-correct indicators suggest that I'm not.  We'll see.  Just in case, please be careful out there.

Peter